Bookies are currently divided on the winner of this year’s RIBA Stirling Prize, the UK’s most prestigious architecture prize. With only one month to go until award night, betting website William Hill lists four buildings as having equal chances of winning and the remaining two behind with close odds.
At the time of writing, private house Outhouse, University of Oxford’s Weston Library, City of Glasgow College’s Riverside Campus and high-density development Trafalgar Place all stand on an equal 4/1 (20%) chance of taking the prize. Blavatnik School Of Government stands a 7/2 (11%) chance and finally Newport Street Gallery at a 9/2 (9%) chance.
Last year Burntwood School in London won the Stirling Prize, which may suggest why more bets have been placed on higher education buildings like Weston Library and City of Glasgow College campus (Blavatnik School, however, is not quite as popular). Historically, public and cultural buildings have outperformed private housing or housing developments. Indeed, only one residential project has ever won RIBA Stirling Prize since its foundation in 1996: Accordia housing development in 2008.
The winner will be announced on 6 October 2016. Read more about each shortlisted buildings on the RIBA website
Appendix: How to understand betting odds
(I wasn’t aware of this before I wrote this blog post and thought it would be interesting to share.)
4/1 means for every £1 you bet, you will win £4 back.
It also means that there is a 1/(4+1), or 1/5, or 20% chance of winning.
Correspondingly, the more top-heavy your fraction, the less chance you are to win – but should you win, your profits will be higher.
Good luck on your future bets!